Walgreens stock surges as profit misses views, but high dividend looks safe

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Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. missed fiscal fourth-quarter profit expectations and provided a downbeat outlook Thursday as the drug store chain and healthcare services company saw lower COVID-19 vaccine and testing volumes weighing on results.

But the stock
WBA,
+4.61%
surged 4.4% in morning trading Thursday, reversing a premarket loss of as much as 4.4%, after the company indicated that its relatively high dividend remained safe.

Net losses for the quarter to Aug. 31 narrowed to $180 million, or 21 cents a share, from $415 million, or 48 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share fell 17% to 67 cents, missing the FactSet consensus of 69 cents.

Sales grew 9.2% to $35.42 billion, beating the FactSet consensus of $34.80 billion, as U.S. retail pharmacy sales rose 3.7%, international sales increased 12.4% and U.S. health care sales jumped 217% to reflect acquisitions.

Walgreens saw a sharp drop-off in COVID-19 vaccinations in the quarter, administering about 400,000 of the shots, down from 2.9 million a year earlier, interim global CFO Manmohan Mahajan said on a call with analysts Thursday.

The company said it has taken a number of steps to align its cost structure with its business performance, including planned cost cuts of at least $1 billion. Some of those savings will come from adjusting store hours based on local market trends, closing unprofitable stores, and streamlining the supply chain, including using artificial intelligence to more accurately forecast demand, Walgreens interim CEO Ginger Graham said on the call Thursday.

“We anticipate seeing the impact of these actions in fiscal 2024, beginning in the second quarter,” Graham said in a statement.

The quarterly results come at a time of leadership upheaval for Walgreens, which earlier this week announced the appointment of former Express Scripts CEO Tim Wentworth as its new chief executive, effective Oct. 23. Former Walgreens CEO Rosalind Brewer stepped down at the end of August, one month after the departure of the company’s chief financial officer.

Walgreens stock has reflected his upheaval this year, as the 36.8% plunge so far in 2023 makes it the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s
DJIA
worst year-to-date performer. Although the stock has bounced since closing at a 25-year low of $20.90 on Sept. 28, the weakness has boosted its dividend yield to 8.14% at current prices, enough to make it the highest yielder in the Dow and the S&P 500 index’s
SPX
third-highest yielder.

When asked on the conference call by TD Cowen analyst Charles Rhyee about “any thoughts” from the board about the dividend, Graham answered: “[A]t this point, the board has made no changes to the dividend policy.”

Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes said the commitment to its dividend policy was “likely a driver of the positive stock reaction,” along with the fact that its full-year guidance looks “achievable.”

For fiscal 2024, Walgreens expects adjusted EPS of $3.20 to $3.50, below the FactSet consensus of $3.71. One headwind is an expected sharp decline in COVID-19 vaccinations, Mahajan said on the call Thursday, with the company projecting about 5 million COVID vaccinations in fiscal 2024, down from 12 million in fiscal 2023.

The company is also projecting a higher level of “shrink,” or inventory loss that stems largely from theft, in fiscal 2024, Mahajan said on the call. Shrink has been increasing in the past few months, Mahajan said, and “continues to represent a serious systemic issue across the retail industry.”

In its U.S. health care business, Walgreens plans to exit about 60 clinics, with some slower-growing clinics closed or transferred to affiliate relationships, John Driscoll, president of Walgreens U.S. healthcare business, said on the call Thursday.

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