The most deeply inverted part of the U.S. yield curve is one that hasn’t sent a false signal about the prospects of a U.S. recession in more than a half-century of research.
That’s the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, which was 157.5 basis points below zero on Thursday — reflecting a 3-month T-bill rate BX:TMUBMUSD03M that’s trading well above its 10-year counterpart BX:TMUBMUSD10Y. The large difference between the two rates is pointing to the likelihood of a “deep recession,” according to Campbell Harvey,…
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