If Nikki Haley were to win New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary today, it would be a shocker, as political analysts are predicting that front-runner Donald Trump will win and be able to move on to focusing on the general election against President Joe Biden.
“Trump’s dominant performance in the Iowa Caucus last week, Ron DeSantis’ decision to end his campaign, and Nikki Haley’s expected loss on her best turf in New Hampshire today mark the effective end of the GOP primary. This means we are heading into general election season early, as expected,” said Tobin Marcus, head of policy and politics at Wolfe Research, in a note.
Betting markets and polls are favoring Trump. One such market, PredictIt, is giving the former president a 95% chance of victory in New Hampshire, up from just 67% on Jan. 13. And he has 56% support in a RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire polls, ahead of 37% for Haley and 8% for DeSantis, who dropped out of the Republican presidential primary on Sunday.
Related: How betting markets got the 2022 midterm elections wrong
“This winter’s nomination battle is essentially over,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a note. He sees Trump winning in New Hampshire “by a comfortable margin — perhaps not a landslide, but Nikki Haley is likely to finish a distant second.”
“Then the race moves to Haley’s home state of South Carolina for the Feb. 24 primary. She’s the clear underdog; the prospect of losing there is likely to push her to drop out within weeks if not days,” Valliere wrote.
“While Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination, the Nov. 5 general election is another story,” the AGF strategist added. “Iowa and New Hampshire are hardly reflective of the country, and suddenly polls are showing a sharp rise of confidence in the economy.”
See: Consumer sentiment jumps to highest level since July 2021
The battle to become the 2024 GOP nominee is also looking close to finished according to Chris Krueger, a strategist and managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group.
If Trump wins in New Hampshire, the GOP primary “likely ends,” Krueger wrote in a note, though he added that the race isn’t officially over until the Republican National Convention in July.
Trump’s economic proposals for a second term include a 10% tariff on all imports, making another attempt to end Obamacare
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addressing student debt by launching a free online college called the American Academy and lowering the top corporate tax rate to 15% — a “tax cut 2.0” that could boost stocks
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The main U.S. stock benchmarks
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traded mostly higher Tuesday morning, a day after the Dow closed above 38,000 for the first time.
Now read: New Hampshire GOP primary: Haley tries to turn the tide, as Trump cruises toward the 2024 nomination
Also see: ‘America does not do coronations’: Nikki Haley hopes to derail Trump in New Hampshire
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