Moviegoers appear to have cooled it since a “Barbie”-fueled summer.
And that could be a worrying signal for consumer spending, according to a chart provided by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.
BoxOfficeMojo/Apollo Chief Economist
“The number of people going to the movies has in recent weeks slowed down more than the usual seasonal pattern,” said Slok, referencing the chart in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Consumer services make up two-thirds of consumer spending, and watching for signs of a slowdown in consumer spending in the services sector is critical for markets.”
The chart reveals a spike in attendance around the 31st week of 2023, coinciding with the release of the “Barbie” movie (alongside, famously, “Oppenheimer”). According to Box Office Mojo, the Barbie flick remains the box-office champ of 2023 so far, grossing more than $634 million in the U.S., with “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” a close second at over $574 million.
From the archives (August 2023): AMC enjoys ‘best week ever’ for box-office revenue, fueled by ‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer’
Tighter credit conditions, a drop in excess savings, and restarted student-debt payments will be continued headwinds for consumers, Deutsche Bank told clients in an outlook released Tuesday. Data last week showed consumer credit posting the biggest drop since the pandemic in August, as those loan paybacks started to kick in.
Like others, they are predicting a recession will hit the U.S. in the first quarter of 2024, though some believe consumer spending is holding up fine.
Read: Americans are feeling less confident about paying back their debts, New York Fed says
As reported in late September, August consumer spending rose 0.4%, though that gain was inflated by higher gasoline prices, which in turn have put strain on many U.S. household budgets. July saw a record 0.8% jump in spending, with Taylor Swift mania getting much of that credit.
Recent weeks indeed have seen a lull in box-office takings, with moviegoers seemingly spending far less to see horror flicks such as “The Nun 2” and “The Exorcist: Believer,” or the meme-trader underdog tale “Dumb Money.”
As for the three major publicly traded movie-theater operators, Imax
IMAX,
Cinemark
CNK,
and AMC
AMC,
only the latter has seen any kind of significant return this year. And that stock, up 25% to date in 2023, that has had a lot more going on than box-office receipts.
AMC is also the distributor of the Taylor Swift concert-tour movie, which is expected to be a “Barbie”-esque hit — and possibly recharge the industry for the autumn — when it opens this weekend.
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