Bumble’s Q3 report seen as ‘worse than feared’; Shares drop 8%

(Updated – November 8, 2023 5:49 AM EST)

Bumble (BMBL) shares fell more than 8% in pre-open Wednesday following the company’s Q3 results.

Revenue of $275.5 million (up 18.4% year-over-year) came in worse than the consensus estimate of $277.11M. Quarterly EPS was $0.12, compared to the consensus estimate of $0.07.

Bumble App revenue grew 22.8% year-over-year to $221.8M, while Badoo App and other revenue increased 3.3% to $53.7M.

Total paying users increased to 3.8M, compared to 3.3M in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, with total average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) growing to $23.42, up from $22.96.

For Q4/23, the company expects revenues to be in the range of $272-$278M, missing the consensus estimate of $286.56M. Full-year revenue is seen at $1.050-$1.056 billion, compared to the consensus of $1.07B.

Analysts at KeyBanc cut the price target by $4 to $20 per share on Overweight-rated BMBL shares.

“With preliminary guidance contemplating no meaningful deceleration from 4Q23 levels and occurring amid a CEO transition, we view BMBL as needing several quarters of consistent execution to bolster sentiment.”

Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the results were “worse than feared.” They cut the target by $5 to $17 per share.

“Bumble brand appears to be decelerating even faster than we anticipated with initial FY24 revenue guidance for low- to midteens growth. A new, lower-growth algorithm may now be in place, which could also limit margin expansion in the near term.”