Confluent crashes 33% on soft Q4 sales forecast; Triggers analyst downgrades

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© Reuters. Confluent tumbles 20% on soft Q4 sales forecast

(Updated – November 2, 2023 8:43 AM EDT)

Confluent (CFLT) shares fell 33% in pre-open Thursday trading after the company reported third-quarter results and adjusted its full-year outlook.

Q3 revenue came in at $200.2 million while analysts were looking for $194.8 million. Adjusted EPS was reported at 2 cents, while analysts were looking for flat profit per share.

“Confluent delivered another strong quarter with 32% year-over-year revenue growth in a volatile macroeconomic environment,” said Jay Kreps, co-founder and CEO, Confluent. “Our continued growth is driven by the critical role of data streaming and customer demand for our industry leading platform that connects, streams, governs, processes and shares streaming data everywhere.”

The company anticipates total revenue for the fourth quarter to be in the range of $204 million to $205 million, below the average analyst estimate of $212.3 million. Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter is projected to be 5 cents, in line with expectations.

Confluent now expects total revenue for the full year to be in the range of $768 million to $769 million, compared to the previous projection of $767 million to $772 million. The Street was sitting at $770.5 million.

FY adjusted loss per share is expected between 1 cent and $0, which compares to the previous range of a loss per share of 2 cents to 5 cents. The consensus was for a loss per share of 3 cents.

BofA analysts downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $24 per share.

“Commentary suggests that the accelerated transition to consumption go-to-market model is likely to be completed by the end of H1FY24. However, we expect this to weigh on growth for at least a full year,” analysts said.

Canaccord Genuity analysts also downgraded the stock, while several other sell-side analysts lowered their targets.

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